Projection · Angola · province by province
The starting line
The forecast opens with the campaign.
This is the map it starts from.
There is no separate presidential ballot. The head of the national list of the party with the most votes becomes President. No minimum share and no run-off. The first Friday Forecast is published once a week of campaign evidence has been checked against its sources and an editor signs off the run.
TRACK RECORD · Run on 2017 data with no campaign evidence, the model called 17 of 18 provinces in 2022.
02 · Provinces to lead
Lourenço (MPLA) won 15 provinces in 2022, Costa Júnior (UNITA) 3.
Colour shows who leads; strength of colour shows how firmly. Hatched provinces are too close to call. Play the map from 2017 to 2022 to see how it moved.
Official 2022 result by province.
03 · Closest provinces
Diaspora is the closest province: 3.8 points between Lourenço (MPLA) and Costa Júnior (UNITA).
The 8 tightest provinces in 2022, ranked by the gap between first and second.
Dots = official share of the vote. Tap a province to open it on the map.
How we know
The rule, the record and the people behind every number.
What it takes to win
There is no separate presidential ballot. The head of the national list of the party with the most votes becomes President. No minimum share and no run-off. Constitution of Angola (2010), art. 109.
| Party (head of list) | Share | Provinces won |
|---|---|---|
| João Lourenço (MPLA) | 52% | 15 |
| Adalberto Costa Júnior (UNITA) | 45% | 3 |
| Benedito Daniel (PRS) | 1% | 0 |
| Nimi a Simbi (FNLA) | 1% | 0 |
| Florbela Malaquias (PHA) | 1% | 0 |
| Manuel Fernandes (CASA-CE) | 0% | 0 |
| Eduardo Jonatão "Dinho" Chingunji (P-NJANGO) | 0% | 0 |
| Quintino Moreira (APN) | 0% | 0 |
Turnout in 2022: 46% of registered voters across the 15 provinces with declared figures.
Run by sAI
sAI, Strata-AF™’s election engine, gathers campaign evidence from the news, checks each piece against its source (the supporting sentence must appear word for word, and the candidate and state must be named), and turns what passes into the weekly movement and forecast. Strata-AF™ editors set the rules sAI works to, review anything it cannot verify, and audit its calls. sAI publishes on its own only when every guardrail passes; otherwise an editor decides. Each report above says who published it.
No corrections so far. Any correction or retraction will be listed here.
Tested against 2017 → 2022
Before any forecast is trusted, the model is run as if it were the week before 2022, starting only from the 2017 results and with no campaign evidence, then scored against what happened. UNITA’s 2022 Frente Patriótica Unida brought in Abel Chivukuvuku, who led CASA-CE in 2017, so the test adds CASA-CE’s 2017 vote to UNITA.
A structural model only knows the last election. It misses realignments by design; weekly evidence is what has to close the gap, and no forecast is published here until it does and an editor signs it off.
About this data (4)
- 2022 provincial figures are the CNE provisional count at 97% (the final provincial breakdown could not be retrieved). The final national totals are higher by MPLA 46,628 and UNITA 28,901.
- For Luanda, Bengo and Cabinda in 2022 only MPLA and UNITA are available; 2022 registered voters by province come from a compilation not checked against a CNE source.
- Angola split into 21 provinces in 2024; results are shown on the 18 provinces used in 2017 and 2022.
- The 2027 MPLA head of list is not yet known (João Lourenço is term-limited).
Sources for past results (2)
- 2022 · Novo Jornal (CNE provisional count)
- 2017 · CNE Angola