Projection · Cabo Verde · circle by circle
The starting line
The forecast opens with the campaign.
This is the map it starts from.
More than half of all valid votes (blank and null votes do not count). Otherwise the top two meet in a run-off about two weeks later. The first Friday Forecast is published once a week of campaign evidence has been checked against its sources and an editor signs off the run.
02 · Electoral circles to lead
Neves won 6 electoral circles in 2021, Veiga 4.
Colour shows who leads; strength of colour shows how firmly. Hatched electoral circles are too close to call. Play the map from 2016 to 2021 to see how it moved.
Official 2021 result by circle.
03 · Closest electoral circles
Santo Antão is the closest circle: 4.2 points between Neves and Veiga.
The 8 tightest electoral circles in 2021, ranked by the gap between first and second.
Dots = official share of the vote. Tap a circle to open it on the map.
How we know
The rule, the record and the people behind every number.
What it takes to win
More than half of all valid votes (blank and null votes do not count). Otherwise the top two meet in a run-off about two weeks later. Constitution of Cabo Verde and the Electoral Code.
| Candidate | Share | Electoral circles won |
|---|---|---|
| José Maria Pereira Neves | 52% | 6 |
| Carlos Alberto Wahnon de Carvalho Veiga | 42% | 4 |
| Casimiro Jesus Lopes de Pina | 2% | 0 |
| Fernando Rocha Delgado | 1% | 0 |
| Hélio de Jesus Pina Sanches | 1% | 0 |
| Gilson João dos Santos Alves | 1% | 0 |
| Joaquim Jaime Monteiro | 1% | 0 |
Turnout in 2021: 51% of registered voters across the 10 electoral circles with declared figures.
Run by sAI
sAI, Strata-AF™’s election engine, gathers campaign evidence from the news, checks each piece against its source (the supporting sentence must appear word for word, and the candidate and state must be named), and turns what passes into the weekly movement and forecast. Strata-AF™ editors set the rules sAI works to, review anything it cannot verify, and audit its calls. sAI publishes on its own only when every guardrail passes; otherwise an editor decides. Each report above says who published it.
No corrections so far. Any correction or retraction will be listed here.
Tested against 2016 → 2021
Before any forecast is trusted, the model is run as if it were the week before 2021, starting only from the 2016 results and with no campaign evidence, then scored against what happened. MpD-backed candidate in 2016 (Fonseca) carried to the MpD-backed candidate in 2021 (Veiga). PAICV fielded no candidate in 2016, so the opposition side of this test is weak by construction.
A structural model only knows the last election. It misses realignments by design; weekly evidence is what has to close the gap, and no forecast is published here until it does and an editor signs it off.
About this data (3)
- The official results (Boletim Oficial) are published by electoral circle, not by municipality: five single-municipality circles, five multi-municipality circles and three diaspora circles. The map shows circles.
- Diaspora circles count towards the national total but are not drawn on the map.
- Joana Rosa, Antero Tavares and Loisito Sousa have no past vote to start from; they sit in Others until evidence moves them.
Sources for past results (2)
- 2021 · Boletim Oficial / CNE Cabo Verde
- 2016 · CNE Cabo Verde