Projection · The Gambia · area by area
The starting line
The forecast opens with the campaign.
This is the map it starts from.
The most votes wins outright, in a single round. There is no run-off and no minimum share. The first Friday Forecast is published once a week of campaign evidence has been checked against its sources and an editor signs off the run.
TRACK RECORD · Run on 2016 data with no campaign evidence, the model called 7 of 7 administrative areas in 2021.
02 · Administrative areas to lead
Barrow (NPP) won 7 administrative areas in 2021.
Colour shows who leads; strength of colour shows how firmly. Hatched administrative areas are too close to call. Play the map from 2016 to 2021 to see how it moved.
Official 2021 result by area.
03 · Closest administrative areas
Mansakonko is a coin toss: 0.3 points between Barrow (NPP) and Darboe (UDP).
The 7 tightest administrative areas in 2021, ranked by the gap between first and second.
Dots = official share of the vote. Tap a area to open it on the map.
How we know
The rule, the record and the people behind every number.
What it takes to win
The most votes wins outright, in a single round. There is no run-off and no minimum share. Constitution of The Gambia (1997), as amended in 2003.
| Candidate | Share | Administrative areas won |
|---|---|---|
| Adama Barrow (NPP) | 53% | 7 |
| Ousainou Darboe (UDP) | 28% | 0 |
| Mama Kandeh (GDC) | 12% | 0 |
| Halifa Sallah (PDOIS) | 4% | 0 |
| Essa Mbye Faal (IND) | 2% | 0 |
| Abdoulie Ebrima Jammeh (NUP) | 1% | 0 |
Turnout in 2021: 89% of registered voters across the 7 administrative areas with declared figures.
Run by sAI
sAI, Strata-AF™’s election engine, gathers campaign evidence from the news, checks each piece against its source (the supporting sentence must appear word for word, and the candidate and state must be named), and turns what passes into the weekly movement and forecast. Strata-AF™ editors set the rules sAI works to, review anything it cannot verify, and audit its calls. sAI publishes on its own only when every guardrail passes; otherwise an editor decides. Each report above says who published it.
No corrections so far. Any correction or retraction will be listed here.
Tested against 2016 → 2021
Before any forecast is trusted, the model is run as if it were the week before 2021, starting only from the 2016 results and with no campaign evidence, then scored against what happened. Barrow’s 2016 coalition vote carried to his 2021 NPP vote; Kandeh’s GDC to GDC. UDP was inside the 2016 coalition, so Darboe has no separate 2016 base.
A structural model only knows the last election. It misses realignments by design; weekly evidence is what has to close the gap, and no forecast is published here until it does and an editor signs it off.
About this data (3)
- The IEC reports seven areas; Kuntaur and Janjanbureh are reported together as Janjanbureh (Central River Region) and are drawn together on the map.
- The IEC’s 2016 sheet has candidate votes 96 higher than votes cast nationally (Kanifing and Brikama rows); figures are kept as published.
- Bensouda (UNITE) has no past vote of his own to start from; he sits at zero until evidence moves him. Kandeh’s GDC vote (12% in 2021) starts in Others.