Projection · Kenya · county by county
The starting line
The forecast opens with the campaign.
This is the map it starts from.
More than half of all valid votes, and at least 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 47 counties. Otherwise the top two meet in a fresh election within 30 days. The first Friday Forecast is published once a week of campaign evidence has been checked against its sources and an editor signs off the run.
TRACK RECORD · Run on 2017 data with no campaign evidence, the model called 39 of 47 counties in 2022.
02 · Counties to lead
Odinga (AZIMIO) won 27 counties in 2022, Ruto (UDA) 20.
Colour shows who leads; strength of colour shows how firmly. Hatched counties are too close to call. Play the map from 2017 to 2022 to see how it moved.
Official 2022 result by county.
03 · Closest counties
Marsabit is the closest county: 2.7 points between Ruto (UDA) and Odinga (AZIMIO).
The 8 tightest counties in 2022, ranked by the gap between first and second.
Dots = official share of the vote. Tap a county to open it on the map.
04 · On the 25% line
In 2022, Odinga (AZIMIO) cleared 25% in 34 of 47 counties.
To win in the first round a candidate needs 25% of the vote in 24 of the 47 counties. Every county is a tile, sorted by the candidate’s share. Solid tiles cleared 25% in 2022.
How we know
The rule, the record and the people behind every number.
What it takes to win
More than half of all valid votes, and at least 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 47 counties. Otherwise the top two meet in a fresh election within 30 days. Article 138(4) and (5), Constitution of Kenya 2010.
| Candidate | Share | Counties won | ≥25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Samoei Ruto (UDA) | 50% | 20 | 39 |
| Raila Odinga (AZIMIO) | 49% | 27 | 34 |
| George Luchiri Wajackoyah | 0% | 0 | 0 |
| David Mwaure Waihiga | 0% | 0 | 0 |
Turnout in 2022: 65% of registered voters across the 47 counties with declared figures.
Run by sAI
sAI, Strata-AF™’s election engine, gathers campaign evidence from the news, checks each piece against its source (the supporting sentence must appear word for word, and the candidate and state must be named), and turns what passes into the weekly movement and forecast. Strata-AF™ editors set the rules sAI works to, review anything it cannot verify, and audit its calls. sAI publishes on its own only when every guardrail passes; otherwise an editor decides. Each report above says who published it.
No corrections so far. Any correction or retraction will be listed here.
Tested against 2017 → 2022
Before any forecast is trusted, the model is run as if it were the week before 2022, starting only from the 2017 results and with no campaign evidence, then scored against what happened. Jubilee 2017 (Kenyatta and Ruto) carried to Ruto 2022; NASA 2017 to Azimio 2022. Kenyatta backed Odinga in 2022, so the test measures how much a realignment breaks a structural model.
A structural model only knows the last election. It misses realignments by design; weekly evidence is what has to close the gap, and no forecast is published here until it does and an editor signs it off.
About this data (3)
- No 2027 candidates are declared yet. The model holds two blocs: Ruto on his 2022 county vote, and the opposition on Azimio’s 2022 county vote. It will be re-seeded when candidates are confirmed.
- 2017 uses the 8 August results (later annulled), the best measure of 2017 county voting. IEBC’s printed 2017 county rows do not sum to its national totals (Odinga −25,294; Kisumu row out by 60,516); figures are kept as printed.
- Diaspora votes count nationally but not towards the 24-county rule.
Sources for past results (2)
- 2022 · IEBC Kenya
- 2017 · IEBC Kenya